EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION – ENSO
September 19th 2024 Current State: NEUTRAL CONDITIONS
During the last 30 days, sea surface temperatures at equatorial Pacific Ocean were below normal at east of 110°W and were above normal at west of 150°E.
Between mid-August and September trade winds at equatorial Pacific Ocean region were stronger than normal between 140°E and the South American coast.
Sub-surface ocean water temperatures at equatorial Pacific Ocean were colder than normal between 140°W and 150°E, from 100 to 200 m depth. Warmer temperatures were present at west of 160°W and at east of 130°W, at less depth.
30-day moving SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) had negative values during August and positive values during September. Its latest value is +5.8 (ending on September 17).
During the last 30 days, convection at equatorial Pacific Ocean was slightly below normal around the dateline and above normal at west of 170°E.
Dynamical and statistical models predict for El Niño region, 71 % chances of transition to La Niña conditions during the season September-October-November 2024.